Romania's Public Deficit Projections
Rating agency Fitch expects Romania's ESA public deficit to be 7% of GDP in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027.
Based on Romania's 2025 budget revision and macroeconomic forecast, Fitch projects the public deficit to decline from 9.3% in 2024 to 8.5% in 2025, followed by a gradual reduction.
The forecast predicts muted growth of 0.7% in 2025, rising to 1.2% in 2026 and 2027.
Romania's public deficit under ESA methodology is expected to decline, but with a one-year delay compared to the trajectory set by the country's seven-year fiscal consolidation plan.
Under a cash perspective, Romania's deficit has marked a modest 0.3 percentage point improvement from 8.7% in 2023 to 8.4% in 2025.
Author's summary: Fitch predicts Romania's public deficit to decline to 7% of GDP in 2026.