Bitcoin Billionaire Arthur Hayes Blames Crypto Plunge on 'Contraction in Dollar Liquidity'

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s recent decline is driven by a contraction in dollar liquidity rather than shifts in government support or institutional positioning.

Hayes suggests that Bitcoin acts as a free-market gauge of global fiat liquidity and trades on the expectation of future fiat supply. He claims BTC could fall to the low $80,000s before potentially reaching $250,000 by year’s end if broader risk markets deteriorate and liquidity measures loosen.

“Bitcoin is the free-market weathervane of global fiat liquidity. It trades on the expectation of future fiat supply.”

He notes that Bitcoin dipped below $90,000, setting a seven-month low, shortly after erasing 2025 gains. In his view, a looming “credit event” is suggested by concurrent strength in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, combined with a potential 10%–20% stock correction and steady or rising interest rates around 5%.

Hayes contends that if such dynamics trigger renewed dollar printing by the U.S. government, Bitcoin could “zoom” toward $200,000–$250,000 by year-end, provided broader risk assets implode and monetary expansion accelerates.

Hayes also points to prior Bitcoin strength since April despite falling USD liquidity, attributing it to institutional inflows and favorable liquidity rhetoric from the Trump administration.

He attributes BTC’s resilience to institutional buying and ETF inflows, even as liquidity metrics he tracks suggest USD liquidity has declined. He frames this as evidence that BTC’s upside is contingent on continued liquidity support and risk-off or risk-on shifts in macro policy and market sentiment.

Decrypt — 2025-11-19

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